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The Subsidy Illusion: What NEAR, Hedera and “Fake Usage” Reveal About Blockchain’s Demand Problem

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Crypto has a recurring habit of confusing subsidized activity with genuine adoption. When a blockchain suddenly reports explosive user growth, record-breaking transaction throughput, or dramatic spikes in daily active wallets, the industry tends to treat those numbers as validation that product-market fit has finally arrived. Founders present the metrics as proof their infrastructure is winning. Venture firms use them to justify valuations. Influencers amplify the narrative. Retail investors often interpret the growth as early evidence that a chain is becoming the next dominant ecosystem. The problem is that many of these metrics are increasingly detached from organic user demand because the underlying activity is frequently being purchased through incentives, fee subsidies, grants, or direct partnerships designed to manufacture usage. When those incentives disappear, the adoption often disappears with them.

That conversation returned to the center of crypto this week after renewed scrutiny around NEAR Protocol and KaiKaiNow, also known as KaiChing, a consumer rewards platform that became responsible for a massive share of activity on the network. According to growing criticism across crypto markets, NEAR allegedly paid KaiKaiNow a substantial amount—widely speculated by some market participants to be in the eight or even nine-figure range—to integrate its product into the ecosystem. The exact size of the arrangement remains undisclosed, but critics argue the mechanics are what matter most. KaiKaiNow reportedly used those funds to cover gas fees for users interacting with the platform, making blockchain usage effectively invisible to end users while dramatically inflating on-chain activity. The model created what looked like a breakout adoption story. Daily active users surged, transactions multiplied, and NEAR’s throughput metrics exploded more than tenfold. On the surface, it looked like one of the strongest consumer adoption stories in crypto.

Then the arrangement reportedly ended.

And so did most of the activity.

According to critics tracking network data, more than 90% of that activity disappeared once the financial incentives ran dry. Whether the exact figure is slightly lower or higher is almost irrelevant because the broader message was impossible to ignore: a large portion of what appeared to be organic network growth may have been heavily dependent on subsidized participation. That distinction matters because investors frequently use these metrics to compare blockchains and evaluate long-term value. If one network is effectively paying users to create activity while another generates lower but fully organic usage, headline metrics can become deeply misleading.

The NEAR Problem Isn’t Unique—It’s Structural

NEAR Protocol is not facing a unique problem. It is facing a very visible version of a structural issue that exists across nearly every major blockchain ecosystem outside of Bitcoin and parts of Ethereum. Nearly every major layer-1 network has used aggressive incentives to manufacture growth at some point. Ecosystem funds pay developers to launch applications. Chains distribute grants to attract protocols. DeFi platforms use liquidity mining incentives to inflate deposits. NFT marketplaces subsidize creators. Gaming protocols pay players. Wallets offer token rewards for onboarding. Social protocols distribute points systems designed to create engagement loops ahead of token launches. Stablecoin issuers frequently subsidize integrations. The entire industry has become deeply dependent on financial engineering as a substitute for product-market fit.

That dynamic became easier to ignore during bull markets because token prices were rising fast enough to mask weak retention. Investors cared less about whether users stayed after incentives disappeared because they were focused on short-term momentum. In today’s environment, those questions matter far more because capital is becoming more selective and investors are increasingly skeptical of vanity metrics.

Hedera Already Lived Through This Cycle

Hedera became one of the clearest examples of this phenomenon when the network consistently reported between 2,000 and 4,000 transactions per second, numbers that dramatically outpaced many competing blockchains. Those metrics were repeatedly used as evidence that Hedera had cracked enterprise adoption at scale. Supporters argued the network had solved one of crypto’s biggest infrastructure problems by proving enterprises were willing to use distributed ledgers in high-volume environments.

Much of that activity was tied to atma.io, a product tracking platform built by Avery Dennison that generated enormous transaction volume through supply chain verification. Critics later argued that this activity was heavily subsidized and economically unsustainable. When the subsidy economics changed, transaction volume collapsed. Hedera’s TPS fell from thousands to single digits, creating one of the most widely cited examples of how blockchain throughput metrics can create misleading narratives when underlying economics are weak.

The issue was never whether the transactions were technically real. They were. The issue was whether they represented sustainable economic demand. Those are very different questions, and crypto frequently treats them as interchangeable.

Crypto’s Metrics Problem Is Getting Worse

The industry remains addicted to metrics that are easy to market but often poor indicators of durability. Daily active users, transaction counts, wallet creation numbers, TPS records, and total value locked all look impressive in investor decks, but they rarely explain whether usage continues once incentives disappear. A blockchain processing millions of nearly free transactions may be far less economically meaningful than a smaller network generating fewer but higher-value transactions that users willingly pay for.

This creates dangerous incentive structures. Founders are rewarded for growth optics. Investors want easy comparative benchmarks. Exchanges prefer fast-growing ecosystems. Token communities amplify any statistic that supports bullish narratives. The result is an environment where artificial activity can be rewarded almost as aggressively as real adoption.

That becomes especially dangerous when retail investors use these metrics to make capital allocation decisions without understanding the economic context behind the numbers.

The Real Problem: Most Blockchain Products Still Struggle to Create Habitual Demand

The uncomfortable truth beneath all of this is that most blockchain applications still struggle to create recurring consumer habits without financial incentives. Outside of core categories like Bitcoin as a store of value, Ethereum’s broader DeFi ecosystem, stablecoins for cross-border payments, and a handful of trading platforms, consumer demand remains weaker than crypto often admits.

Most mainstream consumers do not care which blockchain powers a product. They care whether payments are faster, whether games are more entertaining, whether financial services are cheaper, and whether user experiences feel seamless. Crypto frequently asks users to care about infrastructure when consumers typically care about outcomes. Subsidies often temporarily mask that problem but rarely solve it.

This Isn’t FUD—It’s a Necessary Reality Check

Criticism of subsidized activity is often dismissed as tribal attacks between competing ecosystems, but that framing misses the broader issue. NEAR Protocol is not uniquely guilty. Hedera is not uniquely guilty. This behavior exists across large sections of crypto because the industry remains in an uncomfortable transition between infrastructure speculation and genuine consumer adoption.

The real question investors should be asking is simple: would users continue using these products if nobody paid them to participate?

That question may become one of the most important valuation filters in crypto’s next cycle.

Blockchain & DeFi

AI Hackers Are Winning the Crypto Arms Race—And They’re Getting Cheaper Every Two Months

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For years, the crypto industry treated artificial intelligence as a growth story. Founders pitched AI trading agents, autonomous DeFi assistants, productivity tools, and automated customer service systems as the next major wave of innovation. But a new report from Binance Research suggests the most disruptive AI trend in crypto may be far darker. According to the firm’s latest data, AI is currently twice as effective at exploiting smart contracts as it is at defending them. The economics are becoming increasingly dangerous. The average cost of launching an AI-powered exploit now sits at roughly $1.22 per contract, making automated attacks extraordinarily cheap to deploy at scale. Even more alarming, Binance Research projects the cost of automated exploitation could fall another 22% every two months, creating a future where scanning thousands of contracts for weaknesses becomes nearly free. That is a nightmare scenario for decentralized finance, where billions of dollars remain locked in immutable code that often cannot be patched quickly once vulnerabilities are discovered.

DeFi Just Suffered Its Worst Month in Over Four Years

The report lands alongside brutal real-world numbers that show the threat is no longer theoretical. DeFi hacks surged to $621 million in April 2026, marking the highest single-month loss total in more than four years. That number alone would have raised alarm bells across the industry, but the deeper breakdown is even more concerning. Roughly 66% of those losses stemmed from compromised access controls, meaning many attacks were not the result of brilliant technical exploits against complex smart contract code. Instead, attackers frequently gained access through admin credentials, governance permissions, compromised private keys, backend infrastructure weaknesses, and operational security failures. This reflects a major shift in attack strategy. Rather than spending weeks finding sophisticated code vulnerabilities, attackers are increasingly targeting easier entry points surrounding protocols. AI makes this strategy dramatically more scalable because phishing campaigns can be personalized instantly, credential attacks can be automated, and vulnerability scanning can happen continuously without human intervention.

Why AI Gives Attackers a Structural Advantage

The economics of cybercrime are changing faster than most crypto teams can adapt. Historically, launching sophisticated attacks required highly specialized technical knowledge, significant manual labor, and large time commitments. AI is rapidly removing all three constraints. Large language models can help malicious actors identify vulnerable code patterns, write exploit scripts, automate phishing campaigns, scan GitHub repositories for exposed credentials, and test attack scenarios faster than traditional human teams. This creates a brutal asymmetry for crypto protocols. Security teams must defend every potential weakness across codebases, wallets, governance systems, internal permissions, employee behavior, and cloud infrastructure. Attackers only need one successful entry point. As offensive AI tools improve faster than defensive systems, smaller protocols may find themselves unable to compete against increasingly industrialized cybercriminal operations.

The Real Problem Is Human Weakness

One of crypto’s original promises was eliminating human trust through smart contracts. In theory, code would reduce reliance on banks, institutions, and human decision-making. In practice, humans remain one of the biggest vulnerabilities in the ecosystem. The latest hack data reinforces that reality. When two-thirds of losses are linked to compromised access controls, the issue often has less to do with broken code and more to do with weak internal processes. Employees click phishing links. Admin wallets get compromised. Teams fail to rotate credentials. Governance systems are poorly structured. Internal operational security remains inconsistent. AI is amplifying all of these weaknesses by making social engineering attacks faster, cheaper, and more convincing. Deepfake calls, AI-generated emails, automated impersonation campaigns, and adaptive scam scripts could become standard attack tools.

Binance Is Fighting Back at Massive Scale

The defensive side is not standing still. Binance says it blocked 22.9 million scam and phishing attempts during Q1 2026, preventing approximately $1.98 billion in user losses. That number reveals both the scale of the threat and the rapid evolution of defensive systems. Crypto exchanges are increasingly investing in AI-powered fraud monitoring, behavioral detection systems, and automated threat identification tools. These systems are becoming essential because manual fraud detection simply cannot keep up with attacks happening at machine speed. The scale of blocked attempts also suggests that users are facing far more attacks than public hack statistics typically reveal.

Tether Has Quietly Become One of Crypto’s Largest Enforcement Players

Tether has become an increasingly aggressive force in crypto crime prevention, even as it remains controversial in broader regulatory debates. The company has frozen more than $4.4 billion in illicit funds to date, demonstrating just how much enforcement power stablecoin issuers now hold within crypto markets. Meanwhile, the T3 Financial Crime Unit—a joint operation involving Tether, TRON, and TRM Labs—froze approximately $300 million in its first year alone. These figures reflect a dramatic shift for an industry that once marketed itself as resistant to centralized intervention. Today, major crypto firms are increasingly acting like quasi-law enforcement partners because the scale of financial crime leaves them little alternative.

Crypto’s Ideological Conflict Is Getting Worse

This defensive evolution creates a growing philosophical problem for crypto. Users want stronger fraud prevention systems, better recovery mechanisms, and faster intervention when funds are stolen. At the same time, many crypto purists remain deeply uncomfortable with centralized entities having the ability to freeze assets, monitor transactions, and cooperate closely with regulators. Tether freezing billions may protect victims, but it also highlights how centralized power continues expanding within supposedly decentralized systems. As AI-driven attacks become more sophisticated, the pressure to centralize defensive infrastructure may intensify even further.

The Future of Crypto Crime Is Autonomous

The most important takeaway from Binance Research is that crypto security is entering a new era defined by autonomous conflict. This is no longer a battle between individual hackers and protocol developers. It is becoming a war between machine-driven offensive systems and machine-driven defense systems. Attackers are scaling faster, costs are collapsing, and exploit automation is improving at alarming speed. If the economics continue moving in this direction, crypto may soon face an environment where attacks become constant, automated, and unavoidable background noise. That would fundamentally reshape how protocols are built, how users interact with DeFi, and how regulators approach the entire sector.

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Bitcoin

Ray Dalio says Bitcoin hasn’t lived up to its safe-haven expectation, pointing to its lack of privacy, high correlation with tech stocks, and smaller market size compared to gold.

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For years, crypto investors pushed a simple narrative: Bitcoin was digital gold.

It would protect investors during monetary instability. It would hedge inflation. It would thrive during geopolitical chaos. And unlike traditional financial assets, it would operate outside the reach of governments, banks, and centralized institutions.

Ray Dalio has never fully bought that thesis—and now he’s making that skepticism louder.

The founder of Bridgewater Associates recently argued that Bitcoin has failed to live up to its reputation as a safe-haven asset, pointing to three major weaknesses: limited privacy, high correlation with technology stocks, and a market size that remains tiny compared to gold.

The comments reignite one of the oldest debates in crypto: is Bitcoin truly evolving into a global reserve hedge—or is it still behaving like a speculative risk asset dressed in anti-establishment branding?

The Correlation Problem

Dalio’s biggest argument may be the hardest for Bitcoin bulls to dismiss.

During periods of macro stress, safe-haven assets are supposed to move independently from risk-heavy markets. Gold often benefits when investors flee volatility. U.S. Treasuries historically served a similar function during financial panic.

Bitcoin has repeatedly behaved very differently.

During the 2022 tightening cycle, Bitcoin traded almost like a leveraged version of the Nasdaq Composite. As interest rates climbed and tech stocks sold off, Bitcoin collapsed alongside growth equities. Institutional investors increasingly treated crypto as part of broader risk-on portfolios rather than a defensive allocation.

That correlation damaged Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative because investors expected independence—not synchronized volatility.

Even during recent ETF-driven rallies, Bitcoin’s institutional flows have increasingly tied it to broader market sentiment. When liquidity expands, Bitcoin tends to outperform. When risk appetite disappears, Bitcoin often gets hit alongside speculative assets.

That is not how traditional safe havens behave.

Bitcoin’s Privacy Problem

Dalio also highlighted something crypto investors often ignore: Bitcoin is not private.

While Bitcoin is decentralized, its blockchain is fully transparent. Every transaction is permanently recorded and increasingly traceable through sophisticated analytics platforms used by governments, exchanges, and compliance firms.

Companies like Chainalysis and TRM Labs have built large businesses helping institutions and governments track blockchain activity.

For some investors, this transparency is a strength because it helps legitimize Bitcoin in regulated financial markets.

But for people who view financial privacy as a core component of monetary freedom, Bitcoin falls short.

This is one reason privacy-focused assets like Monero and Zcash continue attracting ideological supporters despite regulatory pressure.

Ironically, Dalio’s criticism arrives just as Grayscale Investments is pushing for the first-ever spot ETF tied to Zcash, signaling renewed institutional curiosity around privacy-focused assets.

Gold Still Dominates Scale

Then there’s the size issue.

Gold remains one of the largest stores of value in human history, with a market value estimated in the trillions. It is held by central banks, sovereign institutions, pension funds, retail investors, and governments worldwide.

Bitcoin has grown dramatically, especially after spot ETF approvals led by firms like BlackRock and Grayscale Investments.

But Bitcoin still remains significantly smaller and more volatile than gold.

That volatility makes it difficult for conservative institutions to treat Bitcoin as a true reserve asset.

A sovereign wealth fund can allocate heavily to gold without dramatically moving the market.

That’s far harder with Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Bulls Still Have Strong Counterarguments

Despite Dalio’s criticism, Bitcoin supporters would argue he is viewing the asset through a traditional finance lens.

They point out that Bitcoin is still young compared to gold’s thousands of years of monetary history.

Its fixed supply remains one of the strongest anti-inflation arguments in global markets.

Institutional adoption is accelerating through ETF products.

Corporate treasuries continue accumulating Bitcoin.

And younger investors increasingly trust digital assets more than traditional commodities.

Bitcoin may not be acting like gold today—but many bulls argue it is still in the monetization phase.

They believe volatility declines as adoption expands.

The Bigger Macro Debate

Dalio’s criticism reflects a broader institutional debate about what Bitcoin actually is.

Is it digital gold?

Is it a high-beta tech asset?

Is it a speculative macro hedge?

Is it an alternative monetary network?

The answer may be uncomfortable for both critics and maximalists: Bitcoin may be all of these things at different times depending on liquidity conditions and investor behavior.

That complexity makes it difficult to categorize.

And markets hate assets they cannot easily categorize.

The Bottom Line

Ray Dalio isn’t saying Bitcoin is worthless.

He’s saying it has not yet earned its safe-haven reputation.

Looking at its volatility, correlation with tech stocks, and transparency limitations, that argument carries real weight.

The bigger question is whether Bitcoin eventually grows into the role crypto investors promised—or whether the digital gold narrative was always more marketing slogan than financial reality.

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Grayscale Bets Big on Privacy as It Files for the World’s First Spot Zcash ETF

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Privacy coins may be staging an unexpected comeback—and Grayscale Investments just made one of the boldest institutional bets the sector has seen in years.

The asset manager has filed to convert its Zcash Trust into a spot ETF, a move that would create the world’s first exchange-traded fund directly tied to a privacy coin if regulators approve it. The filing lands at a fascinating moment for crypto markets, where institutional appetite for digital assets continues expanding beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, while privacy-focused assets remain among the industry’s most controversial sectors.

For years, privacy coins occupied an uncomfortable position in crypto. They were praised by privacy advocates as essential tools for financial sovereignty but criticized by regulators who viewed anonymous transactions as potential compliance risks. Several major exchanges delisted privacy assets during previous regulatory crackdowns, and many institutional investors avoided the category entirely due to fears that regulators would aggressively target projects built around transaction anonymity.

That narrative may now be changing.

Why This Filing Matters

Grayscale Investments is not a fringe crypto player chasing speculative headlines. The firm played a central role in normalizing institutional crypto exposure through trust products and later helped push spot ETF adoption into the mainstream. Its aggressive legal battle with the SEC over spot Bitcoin ETFs became one of the most important regulatory turning points in modern crypto markets.

That is why this latest filing is so significant.

A spot ETF tied to Zcash would represent far more than another niche product launch. It would signal that institutional firms believe regulatory hostility toward privacy-focused crypto assets may be easing.

If approved, investors would gain exposure to Zcash without directly holding tokens, managing wallets, or navigating crypto exchanges. That dramatically lowers friction for institutional allocators, family offices, and traditional investors interested in privacy-focused assets but unwilling to directly enter crypto infrastructure.

It would also represent a symbolic shift. Privacy coins have spent years operating on the defensive. A regulated ETF would move the category into Wall Street’s financial mainstream.

The SEC May Be Softening Its Position

The timing of the filing appears highly strategic.

Recent reports suggest the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ended its review of privacy coins without pursuing enforcement action. While that does not automatically guarantee future approval for privacy-related financial products, it removes one of the biggest fears hanging over the sector.

For years, many investors assumed privacy coins would eventually face direct regulatory suppression in the United States. That thesis helped push capital toward more politically acceptable assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoin infrastructure plays.

If regulators are becoming less aggressive, privacy assets could attract renewed speculative and institutional attention.

That does not mean regulators are suddenly embracing anonymous financial systems. Privacy remains one of the most politically sensitive areas in crypto policy. But the absence of enforcement action may be interpreted by markets as a sign that outright hostility is fading.

That perception alone could become a powerful catalyst.

Why Zcash Is Different From Other Privacy Coins

Zcash has long positioned itself differently from privacy-focused rivals like Monero.

Unlike Monero, which enforces privacy at the protocol level, Zcash offers optional privacy through shielded transactions. Users can choose between transparent and private transactions depending on their needs.

That design has often made Zcash more appealing to institutions and regulators because it creates flexibility rather than total opacity.

The project also has stronger historical ties to academic cryptography research compared with many other privacy assets. Its zero-knowledge proof technology helped inspire broader innovations across crypto infrastructure, including technologies now used throughout Ethereum scaling systems and broader blockchain ecosystems.

Ironically, while privacy narratives weakened during previous market cycles, Zcash’s underlying cryptographic relevance continued growing.

Now markets may be rediscovering that.

Multicoin Capital Is Quietly Building a Massive Position

Adding more intrigue to the story, Multicoin Capital reportedly disclosed that it has been building a major Zcash position since February.

That may be one of the most interesting parts of this story.

Multicoin has developed a reputation for making aggressive thematic bets before broader markets catch on. The hedge fund reportedly sees Zcash as a macro hedge opportunity—a fascinating thesis in an environment where governments worldwide are expanding financial surveillance, increasing sanctions enforcement, and exploring central bank digital currencies.

From that perspective, privacy assets could evolve from niche speculative tokens into broader ideological hedges against financial overreach.

That thesis remains controversial.

But it is increasingly difficult to ignore.

The Bigger Institutional Crypto Expansion

This filing also reflects a broader Wall Street trend.

Institutional crypto exposure is expanding rapidly beyond simple Bitcoin allocations.

BlackRock legitimized spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Fidelity Investments expanded crypto offerings.

Grayscale Investments continues broadening product categories.

Markets are increasingly asking what comes after Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The answer may include staking products, tokenized assets, altcoin ETFs—and now potentially privacy-focused exposure.

Wall Street appears increasingly willing to tokenize every investable crypto narrative it can legally package.

The Risks Remain Massive

Despite growing optimism, this remains a highly uncertain regulatory bet.

Privacy coins continue facing reputational risks tied to illicit finance concerns. Regulators could still reject the filing. Exchanges may remain cautious. Institutional compliance departments may hesitate to embrace privacy-focused exposure even if the ETF wins approval.

And Zcash itself still faces adoption challenges.

The ETF narrative could drive short-term price momentum without solving long-term usage questions.

That distinction matters.

Financial products can generate investor demand without fundamentally transforming network adoption.

The Bottom Line

Grayscale Investments may have just opened one of crypto’s most controversial new battlegrounds.

If regulators approve the first-ever spot Zcash ETF, privacy coins could rapidly re-enter institutional portfolios after years of regulatory exile.

If regulators reject it, the filing may still mark the beginning of a broader institutional push into overlooked crypto sectors.

Either way, Wall Street is no longer ignoring privacy coins.

And that alone is a major shift.

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