Why a crypto winter may be delayed — and what that means for the next cycle

At a moment when many investors are bracing for the onset of a full‑blown crypto winter, a cadre of industry experts is offering a contrasting narrative. Far from a protracted collapse, they argue the current correction might instead be a prelude to renewal. What’s behind their optimism — and what the implications are for strategy going into 2026.

Macro backdrop: liquidity-shock meets crypto vulnerability

Although 2025 has been a remarkable year in many respects, the markets are now facing headwinds. Bitcoin briefly fell below $90,000 and the aggregate crypto market cap is flirting with the $3 trillion mark. As always, crypto assets — widely regarded as high beta — tend to react early and sharply to macroeconomic and liquidity shocks.

Despite the correction, the current situation lacks the signature crisis events that marked earlier downturns. The cascading collapses of past cycles, such as the FTX implosion, are notably absent. This is significant because it shifts the focus from expecting an imminent crash to analyzing whether the present moment might actually be a foundational reset phase.

Why some experts believe “no winter yet”

The first reason lies in the structural maturation of the market. Institutional infrastructure and regulatory frameworks have evolved considerably. According to one expert from Bitwise Asset Management, crypto is now embedded in more robust systems, allowing it to absorb shocks that would have been destabilizing in earlier phases.

Another perspective from a senior researcher at HashKey Group highlights that while a technical bear market may be underway, the kind of full-scale ecosystem meltdown that defines crypto winters simply hasn’t occurred. He notes that without an euphoric blow-off top, there may not be a prolonged deep freeze.

On the macroeconomic front, some analysts point to the importance of global liquidity. If major central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, begin loosening liquidity conditions, Bitcoin and the broader crypto space could benefit. Conversely, continued monetary tightening could escalate the downside risk. At present, the market remains in a fragile state, highly sensitive to liquidity signals.

There’s also a behavioral shift underway. One CEO points out that corrections of 25 to 30 percent are relatively common even in bullish phases for Bitcoin. This current downturn may simply reflect a rational capital rotation rather than the onset of a bearish cycle. He argues that crypto assets are increasingly being held by high-conviction investors, reducing the speculative volatility that traditionally amplifies downturns.

A final but crucial view comes from a CFO with multi-cycle experience, who suggests that while the timing remains uncertain, the long-term fundamentals of the industry — from tokenization to enterprise infrastructure — are the strongest they’ve been in over five years. His advice emphasizes a long horizon, cautious leverage, and recognition that the classic four-year halving cycle may be losing its predictive power.

Strategic implications for crypto investors

If we accept the thesis that the current phase is not a full-scale winter but rather a consolidation, then the strategic posture must adjust accordingly. This doesn’t imply bullish recklessness, but rather a stance of selective readiness.

Volatility is still a dominant feature. With crypto markets so tightly bound to macro signals, an unexpected policy shift or liquidity squeeze could trigger another leg down. However, if liquidity slowly improves and institutional confidence holds, this period could be an attractive re-entry point for longer-term positions.

Risk management remains essential. While stronger infrastructure may mitigate certain systemic risks, it doesn’t erase them. Prudent strategies now emphasize diverse exposure, cautious leverage, and long-view thesis investing rather than short-term speculation.

Additionally, the assumption that crypto follows a predictable four-year cycle is increasingly being questioned. The growing influence of institutional actors, regulatory shifts, and macroeconomic factors means that historical patterns may no longer apply cleanly. As such, investors relying solely on cycle-timing may be exposing themselves to outdated models.

What could still trigger a full crypto winter

Despite the optimism, several critical risks remain. One major concern is the possibility of another liquidity shock. If central banks re-tighten aggressively or if inflation surprises the markets again, high-beta assets like crypto will likely feel the brunt.

Regulatory shocks remain another threat. A sudden policy crackdown in a key jurisdiction, such as the United States, could rapidly drain institutional interest and destabilize flows.

There’s also the structural risk of a black swan event — such as the failure of a major exchange, stablecoin, or protocol. While the experts in this discussion do not believe such a threat is currently active, the industry’s fragility means that vigilance is required.

Finally, there is the risk of a slow bleed: if capital continues to rotate away from crypto without a compelling new narrative or breakthrough adoption wave, the result could be a drawn-out stagnation that damages confidence and participation.

What to monitor as the cycle evolves

The coming months will be shaped by several interlinked developments. The trajectory of interest rates and central bank policy will continue to dominate macro sentiment. Simultaneously, metrics such as large-wallet growth, institutional custody inflows, and tokenization projects will serve as proxies for infrastructure health.

Another key indicator will be the behavior of stablecoins and tokenized assets. Continued growth in these areas would suggest strong structural foundations. Meanwhile, leverage metrics — especially those related to derivatives and margin — should be watched closely, as an uptick could foreshadow volatility spikes.

Regulatory developments, especially in major jurisdictions such as the EU, U.S., and China, will also play a central role. And on the asset side, the relative performance of Bitcoin versus altcoins may reveal whether the market is prioritizing safety or chasing risk.

Conclusion

The prevailing narrative of an impending crypto winter is no longer universally accepted. Instead, a more nuanced picture is emerging: the market appears fragile but fundamentally stronger, volatile but not collapsing, and ripe for selective positioning rather than wholesale retreat.

Crypto may indeed be entering a new structural phase, where traditional cycles give way to more complex macro-crypto interactions. If so, those prepared to analyze and adapt — rather than react reflexively — could find opportunity amid the noise.

The winter, if it comes, may look nothing like the last. And perhaps, just perhaps, it won’t come at all.