MicroStrategy Faces Index Exclusion as Bitcoin Bet Backfires

What started as one of the most audacious moves in corporate finance—an enterprise software firm morphing into a Bitcoin holding company—now faces an existential challenge. MicroStrategy’s stock (MSTR), championed by chairman Michael Saylor as the regulated bridge for institutional Bitcoin exposure, is on the verge of being removed from the Nasdaq 100 and MSCI USA indexes. For a company whose identity is built on the crypto narrative, index exclusion could signal a turning point with far-reaching consequences for markets, investors, and Bitcoin’s institutional pathway.

Why Index Inclusion Matters

Inclusion in indices like the Nasdaq 100 or MSCI USA isn’t just cosmetic—it directly influences capital flows. Index-tracking funds and ETFs buy shares of included companies by default, providing consistent demand. Removal, however, triggers mandatory selling by those funds. JPMorgan analysts estimate MicroStrategy could see passive outflows of up to $2.8 billion if removed from MSCI alone. If other indexes follow, the total could climb to $9 billion.

That scale of mechanical selling could compress liquidity, reduce valuation multiples, and increase funding costs for MicroStrategy—all while shrinking one of Bitcoin’s key institutional access points.

Why Is MicroStrategy at Risk?

The trigger lies in MicroStrategy’s evolving identity. Once known for its business intelligence software, the company now holds over 600,000 BTC—more than 3% of the global supply. Its value is increasingly tied not to revenue or earnings, but to the market price of Bitcoin.

MSCI recently launched a consultation on whether companies that derive the majority of their value from digital asset holdings should be classified as operating companies or investment vehicles. The proposal considers excluding firms whose crypto reserves exceed 50% of total assets. MicroStrategy is a textbook case.

Further complicating matters, the company’s stock performance and valuation have become closely tied to Bitcoin, sometimes acting as a leveraged bet on its price. That volatility and lack of operational diversification make it a risky outlier for traditional equity indices.

The Numbers Behind the Shift

MicroStrategy’s valuation premium has faded. At one point, investors were willing to pay well above the spot value of its Bitcoin stash—effectively rewarding the company’s bold positioning. That premium has eroded. The mNAV (market cap to net asset value) has shrunk to around 1.1, indicating the stock trades only slightly above the value of its crypto holdings.

Since October, Bitcoin has slid by more than 30%, and MicroStrategy’s stock has fallen around 60% from its 2024 peak. With fewer buyers and more volatility, its resemblance to a traditional tech stock is diminishing fast.

What Happens Next?

MSCI is expected to finalize its decision by January 15, 2026. If MicroStrategy is removed, passive index funds would likely begin selling immediately upon rebalancing, putting additional pressure on the share price. Other indexes—such as Nasdaq or Russell—may follow MSCI’s lead, compounding the impact.

Importantly, the company would not be delisted from stock exchanges. It would still trade on Nasdaq, but it would no longer be included in key benchmarks that guide institutional allocations. That distinction could dramatically change the company’s capital access and visibility.

Implications for Investors and Bitcoin

For MicroStrategy, index removal would reduce access to passive capital and potentially weaken its long-term treasury strategy. For investors, it could trigger a reassessment of exposure to crypto-proxy equities. And for Bitcoin, it may eliminate one of its highest-profile institutional champions from mainstream finance.

MicroStrategy has long served as a regulated, public-market conduit for Bitcoin investment. If removed from key indices, that role may diminish, shifting investor focus to emerging alternatives like spot Bitcoin ETFs or other publicly traded companies with more diversified business models.

Strategic Lessons

MicroStrategy’s journey offers two key takeaways. First, aligning a company too closely with digital assets introduces index eligibility risks—even if it boosts short-term valuation. Second, the line between innovative strategy and structural risk can blur quickly when regulation and index rules shift.

As January 2026 approaches, all eyes are on whether MicroStrategy can retain its position in traditional finance’s upper echelon—or whether it will be cast out as a crypto anomaly in a world of more conventional capital.